Seed against finish
How far each seed in the FIE’s tableau goes, and who beats theirs, in 1,218 individual senior events, 2014 to 2026.
How far each seed goes
| Seed | Last 16 | Last 8 | Final | Won | Fencers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–4 | 65% | 48% | 18% | 11% | 4,326 |
| 5–8 | 58% | 36% | 9% | 4% | 4,503 |
| 9–16 | 46% | 19% | 4% | 2% | 9,553 |
| 17–32 | 21% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 19,934 |
| 33–64 | 12% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 37,696 |
| 65 and below | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 35,850 |
Where the lower seed wins
| Round | Lower seed wins | Bouts |
|---|---|---|
| Table of 256 | 35% | 6,167 |
| Table of 128 | 34% | 24,977 |
| Table of 64 | 34% | 43,806 |
| Table of 32 | 39% | 17,562 |
| Table of 16 | 42% | 9,568 |
| Quarter-finals | 43% | 4,856 |
| Semi-finals | 43% | 2,434 |
| Final | 44% | 1,231 |
Who finishes above their seed
Fencers seeded in at least 10 senior events, by how many places above their seed they finish on average. The middle of their events is beside it: one deep run from a low seed in a big field lifts an average, not the middle.
| # | Fencer | Nation | On average | In the middle | Above their seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mattia RUBIN | 🇭🇺 HUN | +47.3 | +12.5 | in 7 of 12 events |
| 2 | Pietro VELLUTI | 🇮🇹 ITA | +45.5 | +27.0 | in 14 of 18 events |
| 3 | Ziyuan CHEN | 🇨🇳 CHN | +43.8 | +47.0 | in 8 of 12 events |
| 4 | Alessandro STELLA | 🇮🇹 ITA | +42.2 | +32.0 | in 6 of 11 events |
| 5 | John WRIGHT | 🇨🇦 CAN | +41.6 | +12.0 | in 8 of 11 events |
| 6 | Karl HARMENBERG | 🇸🇪 SWE | +39.4 | +41.0 | in 7 of 10 events |
| 7 | David SOSNOV | 🇬🇧 GBR | +37.5 | +13.0 | in 20 of 35 events |
| 8 | Lupo Giorgio Giovanni VECCIA SCAVALLI | 🇮🇹 ITA | +35.8 | +19.0 | in 5 of 10 events |
| 9 | Tor FORSSE | 🇸🇪 SWE | +34.8 | +36.0 | in 10 of 13 events |
| 10 | Vittoria CIAMPALINI | 🇮🇹 ITA | +34.8 | +29.0 | in 9 of 12 events |
| 11 | Matilde CALVANESE | 🇮🇹 ITA | +33.9 | +7.5 | in 5 of 10 events |
| 12 | Lev Michael HOLY | 🇨🇿 CZE | +33.6 | +8.5 | in 9 of 16 events |
| 13 | Jan ZAKRZEWSKI | 🇵🇱 POL | +32.8 | +26.0 | in 9 of 10 events |
| 14 | Daniele FRANCIOSA | 🇮🇹 ITA | +32.3 | +27.0 | in 10 of 15 events |
| 15 | Nikolay-Tomas GEORGIEV | 🇧🇬 BUL | +31.2 | +29.0 | in 8 of 10 events |
| 16 | Valerian CASTANIE | 🇫🇷 FRA | +30.2 | +5.0 | in 6 of 12 events |
| 17 | Andrey KUROCHKIN | 🇷🇺 RUS | +29.6 | +8.0 | in 10 of 18 events |
| 18 | Rhys MELIA | 🇬🇧 GBR | +28.8 | +24.5 | in 5 of 10 events |
| 19 | Vittoria SILETTI | 🇮🇹 ITA | +28.7 | +12.0 | in 6 of 10 events |
| 20 | Gaetan BILLA | 🇫🇷 FRA | +28.5 | +10.5 | in 20 of 34 events |
| 21 | James BOURTIS | 🇺🇸 USA | +28.5 | −1.0 | in 11 of 24 events |
| 22 | Benedetta PANTANETTI | 🇮🇹 ITA | +28.1 | +10.5 | in 9 of 14 events |
| 23 | Edo ZOONS | 🇳🇱 NED | +27.0 | +13.5 | in 7 of 10 events |
| 24 | Andrea BAROGLIO | 🇮🇹 ITA | +26.7 | −5.0 | in 12 of 25 events |
| 25 | Vladislav ZHURAVLEV | 🇷🇺 RUS | +25.5 | 0.0 | in 8 of 17 events |
Nations
| # | Nation | On average | In the middle | Above their seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇳🇴 Norway | +3.8 | −1.0 | in 149 of 411 entries |
| 2 | 🇪🇪 Estonia | +3.7 | −1.0 | in 516 of 1,206 entries |
| 3 | 🇸🇮 Slovenia | +2.2 | −1.0 | in 39 of 123 entries |
| 4 | 🇮🇹 Italy | +1.8 | −1.0 | in 3,244 of 7,823 entries |
| 5 | 🇱🇻 Latvia | +1.1 | −2.5 | in 47 of 130 entries |
| 6 | 🇸🇳 Senegal | +0.1 | 0.0 | in 49 of 178 entries |
| 7 | 🇷🇸 Serbia | −0.4 | −2.0 | in 116 of 348 entries |
| 8 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | −0.4 | −1.0 | in 311 of 887 entries |
| 9 | 🇸🇰 Slovakia | −0.7 | −1.0 | in 191 of 533 entries |
| 10 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | −0.8 | −2.0 | in 320 of 907 entries |
| 11 | 🇸🇪 Sweden | −1.2 | −2.0 | in 499 of 1,422 entries |
| 12 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | −1.3 | −2.0 | in 372 of 1,072 entries |
| 13 | 🇵🇪 Peru | −1.4 | 0.0 | in 70 of 213 entries |
| 14 | 🇿🇦 South Africa | −2.0 | 0.0 | in 51 of 157 entries |
| 15 | 🇫🇷 France | −2.0 | −3.0 | in 2,609 of 7,106 entries |
| 16 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | −2.0 | −4.0 | in 1,351 of 3,863 entries |
| 17 | 🇷🇺 Russia | −2.0 | −3.0 | in 1,517 of 4,045 entries |
| 18 | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | −2.1 | −1.0 | in 547 of 1,573 entries |
| 19 | 🇱🇹 Lithuania | −2.4 | −2.0 | in 90 of 297 entries |
| 20 | 🇮🇷 Iran | −2.6 | −1.0 | in 199 of 603 entries |
Every FIE event whose tableau is kept here. A fencer’s seed is the one in the last table they reached; team events don’t count.